In a region shadowed by Vladimir Putin’s revanchist ambitions, Romania has been a pillar of pro‑western stability. Possessing a long border with Ukraine, the country has been a staunch ally to its neighbour under the outgoing president, Klaus Iohannis. As well as providing military aid, more than half a million refugees have been accommodated, and Ukrainian grain exports have been facilitated through the Black Sea port of Constanta. During the summer, President Iohannis at one point threw his hat into the ring to become Nato’s new secretary general, a post eventually filled by the Netherlands’ former prime minister, Mark Rutte.
Disturbingly, this bulwark status is now in extreme jeopardy after one of the most remarkable election results in Romania’s post-1989 history. The little‑known far-right independent Călin Georgescu, who topped the poll and now goes into a second-round runoff in December, is a virulent critic of Nato and aid to Ukraine, a vocal admirer of Donald Trump and has suggested Romanian foreign policy should take note of “Russian wisdom”. Mr Georgescu’s brand of insular Christian nationalism shares similarities with Hungary’s prime minister, Viktor Orbán. Ahead of a crucial period after Mr Trump’s re-election, his rise from nowhere risks undermining the fragile consensus underpinning European solidarity with Kyiv.
Sunday’s startling result is also significant on other grounds. A university professor who has praised Romania’s fascist wartime leadership, Mr Georgescu achieved his first-place finish despite having been almost entirely ignored by mainstream media throughout the campaign. His rise, fuelled by viral TikTok videos and podcast appearances, echoes in some ways the tactics successfully deployed by Mr Trump in the US presidential election. Across democracies there appears to be a growing synergy between the populist far right and new social media, which is helping to normalise its extremist positions.
Mr Georgescu’s anti-establishment campaign exploited deep economic insecurities and resentments. Sunday’s poll marked the first time in the post-communist era that a candidate from the ruling centre-left Social Democratic party failed to make the presidential runoff – the result of a toxic combination of the highest inflation rate in the EU, an economic slowdown, and allegations of government corruption. There are now fears that one shock will lead to another in this weekend’s parliamentary elections, in which the far right also hopes to make historic gains.
Mr Georgescu’s second-round contest with a pro-Ukraine, centre-right candidate thus takes on crucial regional significance. Ukraine-sceptic, Moscow‑friendly governments hold power in Hungary and Slovakia, and pro-Russian parties are increasingly influential in Bulgaria. In Georgia and Moldova, pro-EU forces are engaged in an existential battle against attempts to bring both countries back into Russia’s orbit. Ahead of a crucial period in which Kyiv will strive to set the terms of any future ceasefire negotiations with Russia, losing the support of another neighbour would be a bitter blow.
As president-elect Trump prepares to prosecute an “America first” agenda from January, the internationalist values at stake in Ukraine’s struggle to resist Mr Putin’s illegal invasion need more than ever to be robustly defended. The possibility of a lurch to the nationalist right in Romania over the next two weeks should set alarm bells ringing across the EU.
